NFL Power Ratings

Weekly Picks - Edge of Spread 2.0

NFL Power Rating - December 28th, 2006

Tenn (8-7) (ats 11-4)
San Diego (13-2) (ats 9-6)
Baltimore (12-3) (ats 9-6)
New England (11-4) (ats 8-7)
New Orleans (10-5) (ats 10-5)
Indy (11-4) (ats 8-7)
Chicago (13-2) (ats 10-5)
Philly (9-6) (ats 8-6-1)
Denver (9-6) (ats 5-10)
Dallas (9-6) (ats 8-6-1)
Cincy (8-7) (ats 8-6-1)
Jets (9-6) (ats 10-5)
KC (8-7) (ats 7-8)
St Louis (7-8) (ats 8-7)
JAX (8-7) (ats 8-7)
Pittsburgh (7-8) (ats 6-8-1)
Giants (7-8) (ats 6-8-1)
Buffalo (7-8) (ats 10-5)
Atlanta (7-8) (ats 7-8)
Miami (6-9) (ats 5-10)
San Francisco (6-9) (ats 8-7)
Carolina (7-8) (ats 5-9-1)
Houston (5-10) (ats 6-9)
Seattle (8-7) (ats 5-9-1)
Minny (6-9) (ats 7-8)
Arizona (5-10) (ats 7-8)
Green Bay (7-8) (ats 6-8-1)
Red Skins (5-10) (ats 5-8-2)
Cleveland (4-11) (ats 7-7-1)
Tampa (4-11) (ats 6-8-1)
Oakland (2-13) (ats 6-9)
Detroit (2-13) (ats 5-10)

Statistics based on Vegas Insider. Analysis by Forensic Real Estate in Aurora, CO 80014. Commentary including humor, definitions, how-to, photos, discussion, and high tech hocus pocus. NFL Reuben Droughns.

Numbers after the team name = first set is the team record - second set is record Against The Spread= ats.

There are 4 categories: Elite, Plus, Minus, Suck. Ratings are forward looking - it's what I expect them to do next week and the rest of the season.

Elite = expect to win any game - home or away - even against another elite team. Elite team is expected to win 3 of 4 remaining games.

Plus = expect to win 3 of 5 remaining games.

Minus = expect to win 2 of 5 remaining games

Suck = expect to win 1 of 4 remaining games - or worse.

Teams listed in order. Categories are indicated by the horizontal lines.

Basic betting strategy: Find the mis-match games with reasonable spread (6.5 or so). Example: elite v. minus, or plus v suck and bet the favorite. Or, find a game with 2 teams in the same category and spread of 5.0 (or more) - either take the points or bet the under-dog to win the game outright.

2006 Results:

Week 1 (Sept 10, 2006) Bets / Results
Opening Balance = break even
For the Week = bet 30 units, net result = plus 10.
For the Year = plus 10.
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Week 2 (Sept 17, 2006) Bets / Results
Opening Balance = plus 10
For the Week = bet 35 units, net result = minus 25
For the Year = minus 15 units
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Week 3 (Sept 24, 2006) Bets / Results
Opening Balance = minus 15 units
For the Week = net push
For the Year = minus 15 units
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Week 4 (Oct 01, 2006) Bets / Results
Opening Balance = minus 15 units
For the Week = push
For the Year = minus 15 units
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Week 5 (Oct 08, 2006) Bets / Results
Opening Balance = minus 15 units
For the Week = minus 15 units
For the Year = minus 30 bananas
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Week 6 (Oct 15, 2006) Bets / Results
Opening Balance = minus 30 units
For the Week = ??
For the Year =
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How to evaluate the results: Betting against the spread is a 50/50 proposition. Flip a coin, or put a blindfold on a chimpanzee and expect to break even over time.

3 weeks into the season, I am doing worse than the blind chimpanzee for the year, but moving in the right direction. Disclaimer: No chimpanzees were harmed in the making of this website.

NFL Power Ratings page is provided with no charge, no spam, no pop-ups, no cookies, none of that stuff. I publish weekly picks on a blog called - Edge of Spread 2.0. This blog follows the same strict rules - no charge, no spam, no cookies, no pop-ups. You may find links to other football pick websites and blogs, but I am not affiliated with any of them and I do not endorse or vouch for any of them.

Sources and Resources: NFL outsiders, next

Other People's Picks

Against the spread - year to date alpha by team - Vegas Insider

NFL Power Ratings

2006 Results:

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